Germany Election

AfD scores historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt as Merz’s CDU suffers crushing defeat

Exit polls put the far-right party near 44.5%, but the final seat distribution will determine whether its election triumph can translate into control of the state government.

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany has secured a historic election victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its previous vote share and delivering a serious political blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christian Democratic Union.

Exit polls released after voting ended on Sunday projected that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) had won approximately 44.5% of the vote. The result represents a dramatic increase from the party’s 20.8% performance in the 2021 state election.

The CDU, which has led Saxony-Anhalt for more than two decades, was projected to finish a distant second with around 18.5% roughly half the 37.1% it secured five years ago.

Celebrations as first projections emerge

AfD leaders and supporters reacted jubilantly when the initial projections appeared at the party’s election gathering in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt’s capital.

The figures showed the AfD with a commanding lead over every other party, immediately establishing the result as one of the most consequential regional election outcomes in Germany’s modern political history.

A victory does not automatically mean power

Despite the scale of its projected victory, the AfD is not yet guaranteed control of the state government. The decisive factor will be the final distribution of seats in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament.

Under Germany’s proportional electoral system, the number of parties crossing the threshold for parliamentary representation can affect whether the leading party receives an outright majority of seats.

If the AfD falls short of a majority, forming a government could prove extremely difficult. Germany’s established parties have repeatedly ruled out entering coalitions with the AfD under the political barrier commonly described as the “firewall”.

The AfD has clearly won the election, but the final seat arithmetic will decide whether it has also won the power to govern.

A result short of a majority could therefore leave the AfD as the largest opposition party while compelling the CDU and other parties to attempt to form a broad alternative coalition.

Where is Saxony-Anhalt?

Saxony-Anhalt is located in eastern Germany and has Magdeburg as its capital. The state lies west of Berlin and north-west of Leipzig, with a population of approximately 2.2 million people.

Like several areas of the former East Germany, Saxony-Anhalt has experienced population decline, economic disparities and growing dissatisfaction with established political institutions. These conditions have helped the AfD develop a particularly strong electoral base across eastern Germany.

Major setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz

The projected result represents a severe defeat for Chancellor Merz. His CDU had governed Saxony-Anhalt for approximately 24 years and entered the election hoping that a tougher approach to migration and security would slow the AfD’s advance.

Instead, the CDU’s support appears to have fallen by almost half. The outcome is likely to intensify pressure on Merz’s federal government amid concerns over Germany’s sluggish economy, living costs and dissatisfaction with the pace of promised reforms.

The vote will also be viewed as a test of national political sentiment. With the AfD performing strongly in nationwide opinion surveys, its Saxony-Anhalt breakthrough could strengthen the party’s claim that its support now extends beyond isolated regional protest.

AfD sets its sights on national power

AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund and other senior party figures portrayed the victory as a mandate for significant political change. The party has presented the Saxony-Anhalt election as an important step toward challenging for federal power in Germany’s 2029 national election.

Its campaign focused heavily on tougher immigration controls, law and order, national identity and opposition to policies advanced by Germany’s traditional parties. AfD leaders have also called for closer relations with Russia and reductions in German assistance to Ukraine.

Saxony-Anhalt’s AfD branch has been classified as a right-wing extremist organisation by the state’s domestic intelligence agency. The party rejects that designation and says state institutions are being used against a legitimate political opposition movement.

Could the AfD form Germany’s first far-right state government?

If the final results give the AfD an outright parliamentary majority, the party could attempt to form a government without relying on coalition partners. Such an outcome would constitute a political watershed for Germany.

Control of a state administration would give the party influence over important areas including policing, education, cultural policy and regional spending. It would also provide the AfD with an opportunity to demonstrate whether it can move from opposition politics to governing.

If it cannot govern alone, however, the continuing refusal of other parties to cooperate could block its route to executive power despite its overwhelming first-place finish.

Germany enters a new political phase

Whatever the final coalition arrangement, the election has altered Germany’s political landscape. The AfD has transformed its 2021 result into a dominant electoral performance, while the CDU has suffered a collapse in a state it controlled for decades.

The outcome also raises difficult questions for Germany’s mainstream parties. Maintaining the firewall against the AfD may require an ideologically diverse coalition, while any move toward cooperation could overturn one of the central boundaries of modern German politics.

The final results and seat allocation will determine who can form the next government. For now, the AfD has achieved an unprecedented electoral victory—but whether it can convert that triumph into governing power remains unresolved.